Macro and traditional finance
Venezuela Prepares Dollarization Bill Amid 356–500% Inflation
Why it matters: Official dollarization could compete with USDT in the country, but for now it is only a private draft with no legal status.
Experts: Bitcoin's Fate to Be Decided in 48 Hours on Fed and CLARITY Act
Why it matters: The outcome of the Fed meeting and the CLARITY Act vote will set the market's direction for the coming weeks.
Vitalik Buterin calls for 'adversarial governance' of AI agents
Why it matters: Fears around AI regulation could hit US stocks and, through risk-off sentiment, spill over into the crypto market in Q4.
Trump says Iran wants a quick deal, bitcoin holds near $79,000
Why it matters: Geopolitics and Trump's AI remarks are increasing market volatility, while bitcoin is so far holding the $79,000 level.
AI chip stocks fall, Brent crude above $108, bitcoin braces for volatility
Why it matters: Rising oil amplifies inflationary pressure and expectations of Fed tightening, weighing on risk assets including bitcoin.
Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all meet this week
Why it matters: Decisions by three central banks and inflation data will shape rate and liquidity expectations, directly affecting bitcoin and the crypto market.
US 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for first time since 2007
Why it matters: A 5% risk-free yield weighs on equities and risk assets, including crypto, and the Fed's tone will determine further capital outflows into bonds.
Trump announces energy deal: Bitcoin and gold rise
Why it matters: Easing geopolitical tension in energy reduces pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
HSBC, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect a 25 bps Fed rate hike on Sept. 15-16
Why it matters: A rate hike strengthens the dollar and bond yields, pressuring bitcoin and risk assets in the short term.
Goldman Sachs expects a 25 bps Fed hike to 3.75–4.00%
Why it matters: A rate hike will increase pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin and the crypto market.
Markets price in 91% probability of a Fed rate hike
Why it matters: Fed tightening weighs on risk assets and bitcoin, pushing up bond yields and borrowing costs.
Prediction Markets Price September Fed Rate Hike at 78–81%
Why it matters: A rate hike for the first time since 2023 would strengthen the dollar and yields, which historically pressures liquid assets including bitcoin.
Dollar rises to two-week high as market prices in 86% odds of Fed hike
Why it matters: Fed tightening and rising oil prices weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, ahead of meetings of the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
BIS warns on high leverage after near-collapse of Situational Awareness fund
Why it matters: The regulator's signal of market fragility from leverage raises the risk of sharp sell-offs, including in crypto assets.
Bitcoin rebounds above $70,000, but market sees 85% odds of a Fed rate hike
Why it matters: The outcome of the Fed meeting will determine whether BTC's rebound continues or rising yields cut it short.
US 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2023
Why it matters: Rising yields tighten financial conditions and reduce the odds of a Fed pause, weighing on risk assets including bitcoin.
Market prices 80.5% odds of Fed rate hike at September 15-16 meeting
Why it matters: A rate hike would increase pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin, and could trigger outflows from crypto into short-term bonds.
US tax deadline on September 15 to test Bitcoin liquidity
Why it matters: The drain of liquidity into the Treasury ahead of the Fed decision could increase Bitcoin volatility and pressure on risk assets.
Fed holds rates for fifth time; 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.2%
Why it matters: Rising US government bond yields increase pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin, ahead of the Fed meeting on September 15-16.
Pantheon Macro expects Fed rate hike of 25 bps as disinflation stalls
Why it matters: Rising expectations of a rate hike increase pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin and the crypto market.