Macro· ★★★· neutral·

Polymarket: 96% odds Fed holds rates in 2026, Democrats favored for House

  • —No Fed rate cut in 2026 priced at 96% on Polymarket
  • —Democrats: 92.5% for House, 64.5% for Senate before Nov. 3 vote
  • —US-Iran ceasefire through Oct. 31 at 82.5%, down 3 points on the week
  • —Bitcoin above $100K by end-2026 at 17.5%, unchanged
Why it matters: Prediction markets point to a prolonged Fed hold and divided Congress, limiting near-term catalysts for crypto.
#BTC
Source: CryptoActu
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