Macro· ★★★★· neutral·

CME and Polymarket See Over 80% Odds Fed Holds Rates on Oct. 28

  • —CME FedWatch: 82.8% for a hold, 17.2% for a 25 bps hike
  • —Polymarket prices 86–87% odds of no change on Oct. 28
  • —Markets see more than 85% odds of a December rate hike
  • —About 15.5% chance of a 50 bps hike by year-end
Why it matters: A pause would ease pressure on risk assets, but hawkish guidance on Oct. 28 could fuel crypto volatility into December.
#BTC
Source: Siam Blockchain
More on this
Macro · Oct 16
Polymarket Prices 24% Odds of Fed Rate Hike as Bitcoin Slips Below $82,000
 Macro · Oct 13
Polymarket Odds: 81% for Fed Hold in October, 76% for December Hike
 Macro · Oct 16
Polymarket odds of no Fed rate change in October hit record 87%