Macro· ★★★★· bullish·

Polymarket odds of no Fed rate change in October hit record 87%

  • —Odds of no Fed rate change in October hit an all-time high of 87% on Polymarket
  • —Probability of a 25 bps hike in October stands at 14%
  • —Volume on no change reached $13.15 million versus $9.97 million on a hike
  • —Odds of zero Fed rate cuts by end-2026 climbed to 96.8%
Why it matters: A Fed pause could revive bullish sentiment in crypto, which spent the past week correcting on hot US inflation data.
Source: Finbold