Polymarket Odds: 81% for Fed Hold in October, 76% for December Hike
- —Polymarket: 81% for an October hold, 20% for a 25bp hike
- —Traders see a 76% chance of a December rate hike
- —October contract volume on Polymarket is about $33.8 million
- —CME FedWatch agrees: 81.7% hold vs 18.3% hike
Why it matters: An October pause is not a dovish reset: December hike pricing keeps yields, liquidity and volatility risks alive for bitcoin.
Source: Coinspeaker