Macro and traditional finance
Hwatai Securities: need for an October Fed hike is fading, December is the base case
Why it matters: The Fed's rate path drives pressure on Bitcoin and risk assets; a pause in October could give the market some relief.
Peter Schiff: rising US Treasury yields will hit bitcoin too
Why it matters: The argument that rising Treasury yields pressure risk assets reinforces the bearish backdrop for bitcoin ahead of the Fed meeting.
Market prices in three more Fed rate hikes through June 2027
Why it matters: Fed tightening weighs on risk assets and bitcoin while supporting the dollar and Treasury yields.
Bessent opens talks with China on AI risks, bitcoin at $75,700
Why it matters: Easing U.S.-China tensions could support risk appetite, but there are no concrete crypto decisions yet.
Trump demands rate cut to 1% after Fed hikes to 4%
Why it matters: Trump's pressure on the Fed adds uncertainty over rates, affecting Bitcoin and risk-asset volatility.
Warsh omits his dot plot forecast for second time, announces Fed communication reform
Why it matters: Reduced Fed transparency and a possible abandonment of the dot plot will complicate assessment of future rates, raising uncertainty for the crypto market.
Bitcoin holds $76,000 after Fed's first rate hike in three years
Why it matters: The Fed's next moves and U.S. inflation will determine whether bitcoin holds near $76,000 or slides toward recent lows as Treasury yields rise above 5%.
Tom Lee: market could rally sharply regardless of Fed decision
Why it matters: Lower long-end yields would support bitcoin, Ethereum and inflows into spot ETFs, as well as exchange and DeFi volumes.
Trump criticizes Fed, says rates should be below 1%
Why it matters: Political pressure on the Fed could influence rate expectations and the volatility of bitcoin and risk assets.
Saudi Arabia halts oil supplies to Europe: WTI at $103, Treasury yields at 5%, bitcoin falls
Why it matters: Rising yields and the oil shock increase pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin, and raise the odds of further Fed tightening.
SA analyst: Fed rate hike will intensify stagflation fears
Why it matters: Stagflation risks weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin and the crypto market.
Market sees 45% chance of Fed rate hike in October
Why it matters: Uncertainty over the Fed rate remains a key driver of volatility for bitcoin and risk assets.
Kaiko: Bitcoin volatility rises amid Fed policy uncertainty
Why it matters: Traders should watch Fed signals: rising volatility increases liquidation risk in derivatives.
Warsh: I won't pre-judge future rate decisions, little evidence inflation is improving
Why it matters: A signal of a hawkish Fed stance sustains rate uncertainty, weighing on risk assets including bitcoin.
White House calls Fed rate hike 'highly regrettable'
Why it matters: Rising rates increase the risk-free yield and weigh on crypto; the White House-Fed conflict adds uncertainty to markets.
Fed Chair Warsh: inflation too high, rate raised by 0.25 pp
Why it matters: The first rate hike in three years increases pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin and the crypto market.
Warsh: no need to pressure labor market to lower inflation
Why it matters: A softer Fed rhetoric on the labor market could reduce expectations of further tightening and support risk assets, including bitcoin.
Warsh: AI investment also pushes long-term rates higher
Why it matters: A signal that the AI boom could keep rates high for longer, pressuring risk assets including crypto.
Warsh: rate hike reflects economic strength, capital competition, and geopolitics
Why it matters: The Fed's hawkish tone pressures risk assets, including bitcoin, and increases market volatility.
Warsh: Fed must go its own way, won't comment on Trump
Why it matters: A signal of Fed independence from political pressure — important for rate expectations and risk assets, including bitcoin.