Macro and traditional finance
Fed rate decision due today: market prices 92% odds of a hike to 3.75–4.00%
Why it matters: The rate move is already priced in, so the reaction will come from the dot plot and Warsh's rhetoric on a December hike; key bitcoin support sits at $70,000.
Fed meeting could be a nightmare for Warsh, but bitcoin may win
Why it matters: The outcome of the Fed meeting will set the direction for bitcoin and the entire crypto market in the coming weeks.
China to enact economic mobilization law on October 1: risks for bitcoin
Why it matters: Escalation around Taiwan and sanctions could trigger a sharp risk-off in crypto, but strengthen bitcoin's long-term safe-haven narrative.
Kalshi: Fed rate hike odds rise to 87%, market prices a second hike in December
Why it matters: A more hawkish rate path increases pressure on Bitcoin and risk assets, shaping market dynamics for the coming weeks.
US, UK, Japanese and EU government bond yields hit multi-year highs
Why it matters: Rising government bond yields weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin, and raise the odds of a hawkish Fed policy.
US Census Bureau: poverty fell to 10.2% in 2025
Why it matters: Strong income data could shift expectations for the Fed rate decision, affecting bitcoin and risk assets.
Bitcoin braces for Fed decision as rate hike odds hit 92%
Why it matters: A Fed rate hike would increase pressure on bitcoin and risk assets, shaping market dynamics for the week.
Fed and Bank of Japan may raise rates in the same week
Why it matters: A narrowing US-Japan rate differential would hit carry trades and reduce risk appetite, including for crypto, at the start of Q4.
KPMG: fintech investment hit $103.1B in H1 2026
Why it matters: The report shows capital in fintech is concentrating in proven leaders, with digital assets remaining one of the key investment areas.
CEA chief Phelan: a Fed rate hike today would be a mistake
Why it matters: A rate hike reduces bitcoin's appeal relative to bonds; Warsh's tone will determine the market's risk appetite.
Strategist Soloway: Fed to hike 25 bps in September, up to 50 bps by December
Why it matters: Expectations of Fed rate hikes increase pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin and the crypto market.
89% of economists expect Bank of Japan to hike 25 bps to 1.25%
Why it matters: Bank of Japan tightening and rising Japanese bond yields could accelerate capital outflows from risk assets, including crypto.
Fed expected to hike rates to 3.75-4% as markets await decision, bitcoin at $75,700
Why it matters: A rate hike and rising Treasury yields weigh on risk assets; Warsh's tone and the dot plot will determine the next move for bitcoin and altcoins.
Dow falls 330 points as 10-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
Why it matters: Rising yields and oil prices increase pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin and crypto stocks, ahead of the Fed's decision.
Morning briefing: Fed 90% likely to hike, BlackRock moves $159M in BTC and ETH
Why it matters: The Fed's rate decision will shape bitcoin and risk asset performance in the coming weeks.
Bank of Russia to hold digital ruble lesson for schoolchildren on September 22
Why it matters: The Central Bank is expanding awareness of the digital ruble: surveys show 76.3% of Russians do not trust the instrument, while only 18.3% understand it.
Fed raises rates to 3.75–4.00%, first hike since 2023
Why it matters: Rising rates increase the opportunity cost of speculative assets and pressure bitcoin and DeFi yields, as in the 2022–2023 cycle.
Japan 20-year bond yield rises to 3.856%
Why it matters: Rising Japanese yields could make the yen carry trade more expensive and increase pressure on leveraged bitcoin positions; the key test is the Bank of Japan meeting on September 17-18.
Bitcoin rebounds to $76,000, but high oil and real rates cap gains
Why it matters: Even with progress on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin's upside is constrained by macroeconomics: oil and real rates weigh on risk assets.
Fed reinvests $15.6 billion, but this is not the start of the printing press
Why it matters: Traders expecting a liquidity inflow from the Fed may be wrong: the rate and balance sheet are unchanged, limiting fuel for risk asset gains.