Regulation· ★★★· neutral·

Kalshi and Polymarket Face First Big Election Test With $53B Monthly Volume

  • —Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume rose from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July
  • —Political contracts average about $2 billion a month on Polymarket and under $300 million on Kalshi
  • —The CFTC withdrew in February its 2024 proposal to classify election contracts as gaming
  • —A $3,500 bet moves 97% of midterm markets by at least five cents
Why it matters: The November 3 vote is the first major test of whether prediction markets beat pollsters, a result that will shape their legal standing and institutional demand.
Source: Decrypt
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