Regulation· ★★★· neutral·

Kalshi and Polymarket face fresh regulatory battle over prediction markets

  • —Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume rose from $25.7 billion in May to $53 billion in July 2026
  • —The 3rd and 9th Circuits backed Kalshi; the 6th Circuit allowed state regulation
  • —Kalshi argues outcome contracts are derivatives under CFTC oversight; states call them sports betting
  • —Hungary blocked polymarket.com and kalshi.com via SZTFH rulings 321/5/2026 and 621/5/2026
Why it matters: The outcome will decide whether prediction markets fall under federal or state oversight, setting the framework for the entire sector.
Source: BitcoinBázis
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