Polymarket Prices 16.5% Odds of Bab el-Mandeb Closure by Year-End

• —Polymarket puts 16.5% odds on Bab el-Mandeb closing by year-end
• —Contract settlement relies on PortWatch transit data, not headlines
• —Transit through the strait has fallen sharply since late 2023 but never stopped
• —A closure would hit oil, inflation and risk assets including BTC