Trump's $5,000 payout plan: bitcoin catalyst or speculative idea
- —Program cost exceeds $1.2 trillion for ~240 million adults, with no funding mechanism named
- —Tariff revenue since the start of the second term totaled $330 billion, with some tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court
- —According to the Cleveland Fed, only 0.02% of 2020 payments went to bitcoin exchanges, with a price effect of 0.07%
- —Applying 0.02% to $1.2 trillion would imply a bitcoin inflow of about $240 million
Why it matters: There will be almost no real capital inflow into bitcoin from the payouts: without growth in stablecoin supply and ETF inflows, this is just news background rather than structural demand.
Source: Crypto Economy