Macro· ★★★· neutral·

Arthur Hayes: AI debt crisis could sink Bitcoin before a rebound

  • —Hayes estimates over $1 trillion in quality AI-related debt outstanding
  • —Morgan Stanley sees an AI infrastructure funding gap of up to $1.5 trillion by 2028
  • —Oracle placed $18 billion in bonds; TeraWulf issued over $3 billion
  • —The scenario sees BTC falling first, then a Fed or Treasury intervention
Why it matters: The thesis links an AI credit shock to crypto liquidity: a risk-off selloff first, then a possible reversal on policy intervention.
Source: Journal du Coin