Macro· ★★★★· bearish·

Fed rate hike odds hit 70% as US 10-year yield tops 5.2%

  • —Markets price a 70% chance of a Fed hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting
  • —US 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.97% to above 5.2% in seven months
  • —US mortgage rates topped 7% for the first time since January 2025
  • —Fed's Williams and Barr flagged the possible need for further tightening
Why it matters: Rising yields and Fed tightening expectations pressure risk assets, with bitcoin holding near $84,000.
Source: Blockmedia