Macro· ★★★· bullish·

Arthur Hayes: AI slowdown masks profitability problems and becomes a bitcoin catalyst

  • Hayes says the AGI slowdown at Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX masks profitability problems
  • Compute demand from the three firms is backed by more than $1 trillion of investment-grade debt
  • Captive reinsurers' AI data-center exposure could reach $1.54 trillion, he estimates
  • Hayes expects money supply expansion and bitcoin gains under any rescue scenario
Why it matters: The argument ties AI debt risk to future liquidity: a crisis would push the Fed to expand money supply, a backdrop that has historically supported bitcoin.
Source: CoinPost