Kaiko: Bitcoin moves on shifts in rate expectations, not Fed decisions themselves
- —Kaiko: shifts in rate expectations, not the Fed decision itself, drive bitcoin
- —BTC-SPY correlation back above 0.4 in 2026 after briefly turning negative in July 2025
- —12-month correlation of BTC returns with Fed rate changes near zero in 2026
- —US inflation around 3.4% versus the 2% target; unemployment 4.1–4.5% over the past year
Why it matters: Traders should watch the gap between the Fed's decision and market expectations, since surprises in guidance and projections move bitcoin volatility the most.
Source: TokenPost