Regulation· ★★★· bearish·

Study: Military Bets on Polymarket Win 52% of the Time vs 14% Platform Average

  • —Over 400,000 settled Polymarket trades analyzed, focusing on bets of $2,500+ below 35% implied probability
  • —Military and defense bets pay out 52% of the time versus 14% platform-wide
  • —152 "Orca" wallets won over $8 million combined with a win rate above 97%
  • —US serviceman Gannon Ken Van Dyke charged over a $32,537 bet that won $413,062 on the Maduro capture operation
Why it matters: Polymarket's public on-chain ledger lets informed traders send a copyable signal, raising the risk of leaking sensitive operational details.
Source: Coinspeaker
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