Polymarket puts 22% odds on Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing this year
- —The probability of the strait closing has ranged between 21% and 33% in recent weeks
- —Market volume on related Polymarket contracts is $5-14 million
- —Daily ship transits have fallen to about 15 versus pre-crisis levels
- —War-risk insurance premiums have risen to 0.7-2% of a vessel's hull value
Why it matters: The strait carries about 12% of global trade; its closure would hit oil, LNG and freight rates, feeding into crypto via risk-off sentiment.
Source: Crypto Briefing