Traders Put Odds of an October Fed Rate Hike at 54–57%
- —Polymarket: 56% for a 25 bps hike on October 28, 44% for a pause
- —CME: the probability of a rate cut in October collapsed from 53.6% a month ago to 0%
- —CME: 90.1% for the rate to be above 3.75–4% by December
- —August PCE inflation was about 3.6%, core 3.2%, above the Fed's target
Why it matters: Fed tightening weighs on risk assets, but in 2026 the crypto market has repeatedly ignored rate hikes, reacting instead to regulatory news.
Source: Bitcoin.com