Markets· ★★· neutral· October 30, 05:34

Kalshi Senate contracts can settle on different answers to the same election

—Senate control midpoint 64.5% at 22:11 UTC vs ~62.1% seat-count estimate, a 2.4-point gap
—Four-contract hedge cost $3.02 for a $3 gross payout before fees
—Control can resolve early via 4 of 8 media sources; seats use composition on Feb. 1, 2027
—Control YES book showed 363.87 contracts vs 75,698 for NO on 51 seats

Why it matters: Differing settlement terms on the same event create risk for arbitrage and hedges on prediction markets.