Coin Metrics: Kalshi Senate contract arbitrage nearly vanishes after fees
- —Implied probability gaps across Senate contracts averaged 3.3 points, peaking at 9.7 points
- —Arbitrage on nine-contract bundles existed on 19 of 51 days before fees, only 2 days after
- —Nominal Senate contract volume was $14.3 million, with over 90% in Senate control markets
- —Average bundle fee was about 5.2 cents; no actual orders were executed
Why it matters: The findings suggest arbitrage on Kalshi prediction markets leaves little profit once fees and slippage are included.
Source: TokenPost