Kalshi Odds of US Treasury Bitcoin Buy by 2028 Hit 21% on Thin Volume
- —2028 contract at 21%, 2026 contract at 2%
- —Combined volume about $1,617 across roughly 1,600 contracts
- —By Monday morning the 2028 contract had slipped to 11%
- —Trump national bitcoin reserve before 2027: ~200,000 contracts, near 3.5%
Why it matters: The thin market undercuts the signal: 21% reflects rhetoric rather than mechanics, since the Treasury has no authority for open-market BTC purchases.
Source: Bitcoin.com