Analysis: Is the CLARITY Act needed for Bitcoin to rally?
- —After the failed Senate vote, the odds of the law being signed this year on Polymarket fell from 15% to 5%
- —BTC was already recognized as a commodity by the SEC and CFTC in March 2026, and spot ETFs have been operating since January 2024
- —Most provisions of the law will only take effect 360 days after signing
- —The main barrier to banks buying BTC is the Basel requirement of $1 million in capital per $1 million of Bitcoin
Why it matters: For BTC holders, the law matters not as a growth driver but as insurance against the reversal of friendly rules after the 2028 election.
Source: Bitcoin.com