Tiger Research: prediction markets are becoming a gauge for finance and policy
- —9 of 10 price buckets deviated from realized frequency by no more than 4 points
- —Contracts priced above 90% resolved true 97.3% of the time across 113 events
- —About 85% of the verified Limiless sample consisted of sports markets
- —In the 50–60% bucket, the actual occurrence rate was 48.8%
Why it matters: Prediction markets are pitching themselves as a source of probability data for macro analysis, but thin liquidity and limited verification undermine their reliability.
Source: TokenPost
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