Macro· ★★★· neutral·

Kalshi: 84% odds Fed holds rates in October

  • —Kalshi prices 84% odds the Fed holds rates on October 28
  • —Chance of a 0.25 percentage point hike stands at 16%
  • —A rate cut is not priced in by the market
Why it matters: Fed policy drives liquidity and risk appetite, including crypto; a hawkish outcome would pressure bitcoin and altcoins.
Source: Bloomingbit