Markets· ★★· neutral·

Polymarket Prices Flavio Bolsonaro at 84.8% to Win Brazil Presidency

  • —Polymarket gives Bolsonaro 84.8% and Lula 16% ahead of the October 25 runoff
  • —Bolsonaro took 47.1% (56.1 million votes) in round one, Lula 45.1% (53.8 million)
  • —Polymarket volume on the race has topped $174 million
  • —Lula's vote share fell 3.3 percentage points from 2022; turnout was 78.6%
Why it matters: Neither candidate has detailed a crypto policy, so the market-implied lead says little about the future of Brazil's Drex project or crypto rules.
Source: Coinspeaker
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