Polymarket Outperformed Polls in Predicting Bolsonaro's First-Round Win in Brazil
- —Datafolha had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 38%, but the result was reversed
- —Bolsonaro took 47.03% with 56 million votes; Lula got 45.16% with 53.8 million
- —Polymarket's probability lines crossed on September 12, with Bolsonaro's lead reaching 86%
- —A runoff election is set for October 25
Why it matters: The result echoes the 2024 U.S. election and strengthens prediction markets' case as a political data source, even as Brazil's central bank bans such platforms.
Source: Bitcoin.com