Fed seen 87% likely to hike rates on September 16, bitcoin at $77,250
- —Probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16 is 86.5% on futures and over 80% on Kalshi and Polymarket
- —US CPI rose 0.4% m/m in August, with annual inflation accelerating to 3.4%
- —Bitcoin trades at $77,250 versus $82,000 on September 4, when odds were 50/50
- —The GENIUS stablecoin law takes effect on January 18, 2027; rules were proposed by the Treasury and OCC, but not the Fed
Why it matters: A rate hike could increase pressure on risk assets including bitcoin, while transferring stablecoin regulation to the Treasury changes market rules through 2027.
Source: BeInCrypto AR