QCP Capital: Fed Hike and Tightening Cycle to Set Tone for Crypto in Q4

• —The FOMC raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since 2023, with one more implied this year
• —30-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2007 as government borrowing competes with AI-related corporate debt
• —QCP's base case: BTC range-bound at $80K–$90K, accumulating at $80K–$82K and fading $88K–$90K
• —A break above $100K needs multi-week ETF creations and stablecoin supply back at its $322B May peak