Bitfinex: October Tests Bitcoin as Fed Decision Looms Without Key Inflation Data
- —FOMC meets 27-28 October; September PCE lands only on 29 October
- —Futures price 47.1% odds of a hike versus 52.9% for no change
- —10-year real Treasury yield rose to 2.90% from 2.44% at end-August
- —Bitcoin gained about 6% in September on $2.5 billion of spot ETF inflows
Why it matters: A rising real return on risk-free assets forces bitcoin to compete directly for capital, and October will show whether ETF and treasury demand is deep enough to keep paying for it.
Source: Bitfinex Blog