River: If Bitcoin Has Bottomed, This Bear Market Would Be Shortest and Shallowest Since 2013
- —Drawdown from the October 6, 2025 peak of $124,700 to $58,566 on June 30, 2026: 52% over 267 days
- —Prior cycles: 2013–2015 fell 85% over 406 days, 2017–2018 fell 84% over 362 days, 2021–2022 fell 77% over 378 days
- —81% of circulating bitcoin has not moved in over six months; long-term holders have added more than 3 million BTC since 2020
- —Exchange volumes are 30% below the start of the year, and ETFs bought about 18,000 BTC in September, below the monthly average
Why it matters: A confirmed bottom would mark an unusually shallow cycle, leaving the next leg up dependent on real demand returning rather than supply scarcity alone.
Source: 動區 BlockTempo
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