Bitcoin Enters Fifth Rare Bull Cycle Pattern as Cost Basis Crossover Triggers
- —Current bitcoin drawdown is about 55% from the October 2025 peak, versus 75-80% in prior cycles
- —Short-term and long-term holder cost basis crossover has occurred only five times: 2012, 2015, 2019, 2023 and now
- —Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.06 billion over three sessions, peaking at $999 million on September 21
- —Bitcoin's market cap near $2 trillion means larger capital flows are needed for equivalent price moves
Why it matters: The on-chain signal has historically preceded bull phases, while ETF inflows confirm returning institutional demand.
Source: Blockonomi