Bitcoin options show a far smaller election premium than in 2024, Block Scholes says
- —Election-window premium was 2.8 and 0.1 volatility points versus 14.4 and 10.8 in 2024
- —Forward implied volatility: 37.8% for 7-14 days, 35% for 14-30 days, 37.7% for 30-60 days
- —Correlation of BTC daily returns with Kalshi Senate odds averaged -0.02 in 2026
- —The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote
Why it matters: With almost no political risk priced in, an unexpected midterm result could trigger a sharp, one-sided move in bitcoin.
Source: CryptoSlate
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