Simulation: 50.4% of BTC paths hit a new high within a year
- —50.4% of 100,000 paths topped $126,198 within a year
- —Only 34.8% of paths closed above that level after 12 months
- —Median time to breakout was 189 days, with an 18.9% drawdown first
- —Across six models, breakout rates ranged from 17.8% to 52.3%
Why it matters: The simulation shows a wide range of outcomes: a new high is likely, but holding above it happens in fewer than a third of cases.
Source: TokenPost