Bitcoin needs a 59% rally to top its record before the 2028 halving
- —BTC must climb 59% from $79,975 to $126,080 to set a new high
- —Market cap would need to grow from $1.6 trillion to $2.53 trillion on 20.1 million coins
- —Polymarket prices only about a 5% chance of a record by year-end
- —US spot bitcoin ETFs hold $104.7 billion in net assets, with $57.2 billion in cumulative inflows
Why it matters: Fed rate cuts and ETF inflows are the main catalysts; without them, the base case is a $63,847–$100,000 range into next year.
Source: Blockmedia