Brazil Election Upset Puts Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny as Lula Wins at 20% Odds
- —Lula took 51.8% to Bolsonaro's 48.2%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes
- —Polymarket and Kalshi had Bolsonaro near 80% on election morning
- —Polymarket's Brazil election market drew more than $249 million in volume
- —Prediction markets are banned in Brazil itself
Why it matters: The miss fuels debate over whether prediction markets deserve to be treated as an arbiter of truth as their role in crypto grows.
Source: Unchained