Markets· ★★★· bearish·

Polymarket Odds of Bitcoin Reaching $100K This Year Fall to 27%

  • —Polymarket: 27% odds of $100,000 by year-end, 64% for $90,000, 12% for $110,000
  • —59% probability of Bitcoin falling to $80,000 in October, 22% for $75,000
  • —U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $678.9 million in net outflows from Oct. 5–9, plus $65.4 million on Oct. 12
  • —Odds of $100,000 by end-March 2027 stand at 47%, rising to 59% by end-June 2027
Why it matters: Weakening expectations and ETF outflows point to further downside risk for BTC, with the U.S. CPI print as the key near-term catalyst.
Source: Blockmedia