Markets· ★★· neutral·

Polymarket Misses Nobel Peace Prize Winner: Navi Pillay Was Not Among Listed Candidates

  • —Polymarket's Nobel Peace Prize market saw $32.3 million in volume since October 2025
  • —Navi Pillay was not among the 70 listed candidates; the 'other laureate' contract drew only $38,770
  • —Donald Trump drew the most bets at $7.96 million, followed by UNRWA at $2.1 million and Yulia Navalnaya at $1.99 million
  • —Navalnaya's odds jumped from 5 cents to 70.6 cents in 30 minutes before collapsing to zero after the announcement
Why it matters: The episode highlights that prediction markets are bounded by the candidate lists platforms choose, not by real-world probabilities.
Source: Cointribune
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