Prediction markets give Bitcoin just 2% odds of hitting $200,000 in 2026
- —Kalshi prices a 2% chance of Bitcoin above $200,000 by January 1, 2027
- —Polymarket odds for the same level have dropped from 4% to under 2%
- —The $90,000 contract carries 63% implied probability, the $100,000 contract 28%
- —Total volume across related Polymarket contracts exceeds $74 million
Why it matters: Prediction markets signal sharply cooling expectations for an aggressive Bitcoin rally before year-end.
Source: Crypto Briefing