Bitquery audit: backing Polymarket primary favorites in 2026 would have lost 4%
- —Favorites won 238 of 273 Senate, House and governor primaries
- —Betting $1 on each favorite at the reference price lost four cents per dollar
- —Candidates priced at 90 cents or more won 177 of 182 races
- —Favorites priced between 50 and 90 cents won 71% despite an average price of 77 cents
Why it matters: The audit shows forecast accuracy does not equal profit: expensive favorite contracts pay little on a win and wipe out the stake on a loss.
Source: CryptoSlate