Digital X: Prediction markets accurate on rates and elections, unreliable on geopolitics

• —In all 22 FOMC meetings, the market favorite one day before matched the actual decision
• —Election Brier score was 0.069 one day out and 0.073 thirty days out
• —Iran-related geopolitical Brier score rose from 0.061 one day out to 0.113 thirty days out
• —Polymarket and Kalshi volume grew from $800 million to $187 billion in two years