Binance Research: Bitcoin's 46.9% rebound does not yet confirm a cycle bottom
- —BTC is up 46.9% from its July 1 low, rising from $57,800 to $84,880
- —In four of five past analogues, a 40%+ rebound was followed by a break below the prior low
- —The current rebound began at 35.6% below the all-time high, a "shallow correction"
- —This cycle's max drawdown is 54.2%, but in standard deviations (~1.94) it matches past bear markets
Why it matters: Investors should judge a bottom by drawdown depth and volatility rather than rebound size, as the risk of retesting lows remains.
Source: TokenPost